232
FXUS10 KWNH 040732
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 AM EST TUE FEB 04 2020
VALID FEB 04/0000 UTC THRU FEB 07/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~
..EVOLVING FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THU
..SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
MOVING INTO
THE INTERIOR MID ATLANTIC LATE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/NAM/UKMET, 00Z GEFS MEAN
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
07Z UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTED WITH THE REST OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE. STILL THINK THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS TOO FAST WITH THE
TROUGHING COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS FOR DAY 2/3, SO WILL LEAN ON
THE GEFS MEAN INSTEAD. THE ECMWF/UKMET AND THE NAM TO SOME DEGREE
ARE FAIRLY CLUSTERED TOGETHER AND SERVE AS A GOOD CONSENSUS.
EVOLVING POSITIVE TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST INTO THE SOUTH/CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS
WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. AFTER ABOUT 06.00Z,
THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE AHEAD OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE,
WHICH HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. THE SPREAD
HAS LESSENED SOMEWHAT IN THE LAST 2 MODEL CYCLES AND THE 18Z GEFS
MEAN IS FAIRLY IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL CONSENSUS, WHICH THE ECENS
AND ECMWF IS A FAIRLY GOOD PROXY. CONTRARILY, THE 12Z CMC REMAINS
THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH. BASED ON THIS, A
BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET, 18Z GEFS MEAN, AND 00Z NAM ARE
PREFERRED.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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