982  
FXUS10 KWNH 101851  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
150 PM EST MON FEB 10 2020  
 
VALID FEB 10/1200 UTC THRU FEB 14/0000 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES & CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
THERE DO NOT SEEM TO BE GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ISSUES WHICH  
DEGRADE THEIR FORECASTS.  
 
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WED/THU  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET COMPROMISE  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE  
 
THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED IN RELATION TO THE SYSTEM SWINGING  
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE NON-GFS  
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED QUICKER, MAKING THE 12Z GFS MORE RELEVANT  
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE 12Z UKMET HAS GONE FROM THE SLOWEST  
TO THE QUICKEST SOLUTION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOWING THE GREATEST  
INSTABILITY, SO ITS SOLUTION WASN'T CONSIDERED VIABLE. WOULD LEAN  
AWAY FROM THE 12Z UKMET HERE (COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z NAM, 12Z GFS,  
12Z CANADIAN, AND 12Z ECMWF) WITH ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOWER 48  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE ARE WELL WITHIN THE NOISE WITH  
OTHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER 48. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF  
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ROTH  

 
 
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