072
FXUS10 KWNH 110416
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1115 PM EST MON FEB 10 2020
VALID FEB 11/0000 UTC THRU FEB 14/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES & CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN BECOME
ABSORBED INTO THE DEVELOPING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL US AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. MEANWHILE, RIDGING IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE, A PAIR OF
LOWS WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST REGION TOWARD THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL, THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE IS IN AVERAGE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE EXCEPTION
IS IN THE 12Z UKMET, IN WHICH IT IS A FAST OUTLIER WITH THE 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DAY 2 INTO DAY 3. SIMILARLY, BY
THE END OF THE DAY 3 PERIOD, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OUTSIDE THE FAST
UKMET. SO OVERALL FOR THE CONUS, GIVEN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE
(00Z GFS/NAM, 12Z ECMWF/CMC) SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD CLUSTERING, WELL
WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD, AND CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEANS, THAT WILL BE THE PREFERRED BLEND.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
TAYLOR
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