076
FXUS10 KWNH 121624
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1124 AM EST WED FEB 12 2020
VALID FEB 12/1200 UTC THRU FEB 16/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES & CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND INTO DAY 2 (14.12Z), THEN NON-NAM
DAY 3
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
PHASING OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FROM THE WEAKENING/OPENING
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL ACT TO DEEPEN TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN 2/3
OF THE CONUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE, RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN BY= DAY 2 AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WHILE THE BULK OF THAT ENERGY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM, A PIECE IS FORECAST TO BREAK OFF AND EVENTUALLY
FORM A MEANDERING CLOSED LOW AROUND BAJA TOWARD DAY 3. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS FAVORABLE AGREEMENT ACROSS THE CONUS PARTICULARLY
THROUGH 48 HOURS (14.12Z) SUCH THAT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WOULD BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR MASS FIELD PURPOSES. BEYOND THAT TIME
FRAME, COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE THE 12Z NAM BECOMES A
DECIDEDLY AMPLIFIED/SLOW OUTLIER WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
HURLEY
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