956
FXUS10 KWNH 140451
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1151 PM EST THU FEB 13 2020
VALID FEB 14/0000 UTC THRU FEB 17/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES & CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
RELATIVELY QUIET SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS. INITIALLY THE FLOW WILL DOMINATED BY A
LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHUNT THE
SLOW MOVING, LINGERING WARM CONVEYOR/FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN US. OVERALL, THE LATEST (14.00Z) GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE SUCH THAT
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR DAY 1.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES REGION WHICH SHOULD PASS WITHOUT MUCH ACTIVITY OTHER THAN TO
REINFORCE SOME OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS. AS SUCH, WITH THE FAVORABLE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
RELATIVE QUIETER PATTERN, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND CAN BE USED FOR
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DAY 3
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF, 00Z GFS, AND 00Z NAM BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
A COMPACT BUT AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
GULF OF ALASKA TOWARD SOUTHERN BC AND WASHINGTON STATE ON DAY 3.
THERE REMAINS SOME SIZABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES DUE TO AMPLIFICATION
OF UPSTREAM RIDGING IN ITS WAKE. THE UKMET IS SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED WHILE THE CMC IS FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS PUTS
THE ECMWF/GFS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND YET THESE MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES, WHERE THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM ALSO COULD BE INCLUDED IN A BLEND WITH ITS
SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS POINT. OVERALL, DUE
TO THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES MODEL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AT
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
TAYLOR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page