256  
FXUS10 KWNH 270412  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1111 PM EST WED FEB 26 2020  
 
VALID FEB 27/0000 UTC THRU MAR 01/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION W/ MODEL PREFERENCES & FORECAST CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT  
RANGE FORECASTS.  
 
LOWER 48 AND VICINITY  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE  
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS DETAILS ISSUES WITH A LOW MOVING  
BY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND SUBSEQUENT LOW TRACK JUST  
NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND TRAILING FRONTAL PROGRESSION  
ACROSS MN SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD  
SHOWS GREATER DISPERSION, IMPLYING THAT ANY OF THE DETERMINISTIC  
SOLUTIONS HAVE MERIT. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A BLEND OF THE 00Z  
GFS, 00Z NAM, 12Z CANADIAN, 12Z UKMET, AND 12Z ECMWF WITH ABOVE  
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ROTH  
 

 
 
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