605
FXUS10 KWNH 290408
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1107 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2020
VALID FEB 29/0000 UTC THRU MAR 03/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES & FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.
SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA & TRAILING FRONT SAT/SUN
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN TOWARD US/CANADIAN BORDER MON/TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES. A
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z UKMET, 12Z CANADIAN, 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS, AND
12Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST SUNDAY & MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
STARTING ON LATE SUNDAY, THE 00Z GFS IS MORE EASTWARD ALOFT THAN
THE OTHER GUIDANCE, WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM. THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STABLE SHOWING A SYSTEM MOVING NEAR AND OFFSHORE
THE CA COAST SINCE LAST NIGHT, WHICH FITS CONCEPTUAL MODELS
CONSIDERING THE BUILDING RIDGING TO ITS NORTH FORCING THE MID- TO
UPPER-LOW SOUTHWARD AND A LACK OF AN UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE. A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z NAM, 12Z UKMET, 12Z CANADIAN, AND 12Z ECMWF
IS ADVISED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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