590
FXUS10 KWNH 290618
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
118 AM EST SAT FEB 29 2020
VALID FEB 29/0000 UTC THRU MAR 03/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES & FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.
SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA & TRAILING FRONT SAT/SUN
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN TOWARD US/CANADIAN BORDER MON/TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES. A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z UKMET, 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS, AND
00Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST SUNDAY & MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
STARTING ON LATE SUNDAY, THE 00Z GFS IS MORE EASTWARD ALOFT THAN
THE OTHER GUIDANCE, WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM. THE
NON-GFS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STABLE SHOWING A SYSTEM MOVING
NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE CA COAST OVER THEIR PAST DAY OF RUNS, WHICH
FITS CONCEPTUAL MODELS CONSIDERING THE BUILDING RIDGING TO ITS
NORTH FORCING THE MID- TO UPPER-LOW SOUTHWARD AND A LACK OF AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z NAM, 00Z
UKMET, 00Z CANADIAN, AND 00Z ECMWF IS ADVISED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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