003
FXUS10 KWNH 010428
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1127 PM EST SAT FEB 29 2020
VALID MAR 01/0000 UTC THRU MAR 04/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH MODEL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ANY NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE THEIR
SHORT RANGE FORECASTS.
SHORTWAVE NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST BY TUESDAY
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS WITH ANY
VARIATIONS NOTED WITHIN THE SPREAD OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS, 00Z NAM, 12Z ECMWF, 12Z
UKMET, AND 12Z CANADIAN IS RECOMMENDED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.
SYSTEM MOVING DOWN CA ON SUNDAY
THEN PROGRESSING NEAR THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US-MEXICAN BORDER
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
THE GFS REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH IT LIES
CLOSER TO THE CURRENT CONSENSUS THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT (ONE OF
ITS TYPICAL BIASES). A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z NAM, 12Z ECMWF, 12Z
UKMET, AND 12Z CANADIAN WILL DEAL WITH THE NAM'S DEEP BIAS
EFFECTIVELY AND IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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