289
FXUS10 KWNH 030439
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1139 PM EST MON MAR 02 2020
VALID MAR 03/0000 UTC THRU MAR 06/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION W/MODEL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ANY NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR
SHORT RANGE FORECASTS.
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE LOWER 48
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: UKMET/GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THERE IS GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DOWN SOUTH, DISPERSION WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HAS DECREASED SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY TO
MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR DAYS 2-3. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF,
12Z UKMET, AND 00Z GFS SPLITS THE LINGERING DIFFERENCES SEEN IN
THE GUIDANCE QUITE WELL AS IT MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST TO
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE CENTRAL US/CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY, THERE ARE STILL
ISSUES ALOFT WHICH IMPACT SURFACE LOW TRACK. BY FRIDAY MORNING, A
MORE CLOSED SOLUTION ALOFT MAKES SENSE DUE TO INCREASED RIDGING
UPSTREAM, AND A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS, 12Z UKMET, AND 12Z
ECMWF IS PREFERRED. NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, THE 00Z NAM IS DEEPER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE, ITS TYPICAL
BIAS, WHICH IMPACTS ITS LOW TRACK OFFSHORE THE AK PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS, 12Z UKMET,
AND 12Z ECMWF DEALS WITH ISSUES HERE EFFECTIVELY. OVERALL,
CONFIDENCE IN THESE CHOICES IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
ROTH
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