393
FXUS10 KWNH 030638
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
137 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2020
VALID MAR 03/0000 UTC THRU MAR 06/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION W/PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ANY NOTED NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE
THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS.
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE LOWER 48
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: UKMET/GFS COMPROMISE OVERALL; SEE DETAILS BELOW
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THERE IS GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, SO A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS,
00Z UKMET, 00Z NAM, 00Z CANADIAN, AND 00Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED.
DOWN SOUTH MID TO LATE WEEK, DISPERSION WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM REMAINS, WITH THE 00Z ECMWF INCREASING THE SPREAD THIS
CYCLE. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z UKMET AND 00Z GFS SPLITS THE
LINGERING DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE QUITE WELL AS IT MOVES
FROM THE GULF COAST TO OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE CENTRAL US/CANADIAN BORDER
THURSDAY, THE GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON THE IDEA OF A CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW, WITH THE 00Z NAM THE OUTLIER WITH ITS SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN -- A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z UKMET, 00Z ECMWF,
AND 00Z GFS IS PREFERRED HERE. NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE 00Z NAM IS DEEPER THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE, ITS TYPICAL BIAS, WHICH IMPACTS ITS LOW TRACK OFFSHORE
THE AK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A COMPROMISE OF
THE 00Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z ECMWF, AND 00Z CANADIAN DEALS WITH
ISSUES HERE EFFECTIVELY. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN THESE CHOICES IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
ROTH
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