428
FXUS10 KWNH 040445
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1145 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2020
VALID MAR 04/0000 UTC THRU MAR 07/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH MODEL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ANY NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS NOTED DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE
THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS.
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE LOWER 48
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SMALL DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST, THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE
MOVING NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER, AS WELL AS WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE
THESE ISSUES LIE SAFELY WITHIN THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD,
PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS, 00Z NAM, 12Z UKMET, 12Z
CANADIAN, AND 12Z ECMWF WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
THIS IMPLIES LEANING AWAY FROM THE 00Z NAM/12Z CANADIAN DOWN SOUTH
AND AWAY FROM THE 00Z GFS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
ROTH
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