848  
FXUS10 KWNH 070450  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1149 PM EST FRI MAR 06 2020  
 
VALID MAR 07/0000 UTC THRU MAR 10/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
 
OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, THEN A 12Z  
ECMWF/ECENS, 18Z GEFS MEAN  
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST  
WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US. AS THE RIDGING WORKS EASTWARD  
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, TROUGHING/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US AS A COUPLE  
SHORTWAVES WORK THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ACROSS THE  
PACIFIC NW LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND TREKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, A WEAK SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CA TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL  
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. FINALLY,  
A MORE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE  
SOUTHERN CA COAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /  
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY/.  
 
IN A BROAD SENSE, THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AGREES WELL  
WITH CONTINUITY AND RUN TO RUN TRENDS AS WELL AS WELL WITHIN THE  
ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THROUGH 48 HOURS (09.00Z) A GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
CAN BE USED. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE 00Z GFS TRENDS FASTER THAN THE  
REST OF THE GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM  
SHORTWAVE ON DAY 3 AS WELL AS THE IMPULSE THAT EJECTS INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR THE CLOSED LOW OFF SOUTHERN CA, THE 00Z GFS  
DID TREND SLOWER FROM ITS EARLIER RUN BUT STILL IS FASTER THAN THE  
REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE PREFERENCE THEN IS FOR A BLEND TOWARD  
THE 12Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN AND 18Z GEFS MEAN.  
 
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
TAYLOR  
 

 
 
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