563
FXUS10 KWNH 080741
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 AM EDT SUN MAR 08 2020
VALID MAR 08/0000 UTC THRU MAR 11/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
EXCEPTION: ECMWF/CMC/ECENS BLEND WESTERN US DAY 2/3
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
07Z UPDATE: WITH THE REST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE NOW AVAILABLE, THERE
ARE NOT ANY MAJOR DIFFERENCES NOTED, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. WHERE THE PREVIOUS WPC PREFERENCE FOR A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT. ACROSS THE
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE
SPREAD IN THE MASS FIELDS HAS LESSENED. HOWEVER GIVEN SOME OF THE
QPF TRENDS, THE ECMWF IS STILL FAVORED AND HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON DAY
3.
MODELS EXHIBIT FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THEIR MASS FIELDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALOFT,
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BE REPLACED WITH
RIDGING/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN IMPULSE
PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT QUICKLY LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THE 00Z GFS/NAM MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SHORTWAVE / SURFACE LOW, THE DIFFERENCES ARE RELATIVELY MINOR SUCH
THAT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND SHOULD SUFFICE.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT OUT WEST WITH THE
APPROACH OF A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY. THE BIAS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IS FOR THE
GFS/NAM TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD AND THE 00Z
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THAT. THOUGH THE DIFFERENCES SEEM LESS
APPARENT THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED. THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN
MODEL HAS BEEN THE ECMWF, AND FOR THE WPC PREFERENCE, IT'S FAVORED
HEAVILY ON DAY 2/3. SOME INCLUSION OF THE UKMET/CMC AS WELL AS
ECENS MEAN CAN BE INCORPORATED.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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