563  
FXUS10 KWNH 080741  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
340 AM EDT SUN MAR 08 2020  
 
VALID MAR 08/0000 UTC THRU MAR 11/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
 
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
EXCEPTION: ECMWF/CMC/ECENS BLEND WESTERN US DAY 2/3  
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
07Z UPDATE: WITH THE REST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE NOW AVAILABLE, THERE  
ARE NOT ANY MAJOR DIFFERENCES NOTED, PARTICULARLY FOR THE  
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. WHERE THE PREVIOUS WPC PREFERENCE FOR A  
GENERAL MODEL BLEND SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT. ACROSS THE  
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE  
SPREAD IN THE MASS FIELDS HAS LESSENED. HOWEVER GIVEN SOME OF THE  
QPF TRENDS, THE ECMWF IS STILL FAVORED AND HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON DAY  
3.  
 
MODELS EXHIBIT FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THEIR MASS FIELDS  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALOFT,  
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BE REPLACED WITH  
RIDGING/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN IMPULSE  
PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT QUICKLY LIFTS  
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THE 00Z GFS/NAM MIGHT BE  
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE  
SHORTWAVE / SURFACE LOW, THE DIFFERENCES ARE RELATIVELY MINOR SUCH  
THAT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND SHOULD SUFFICE.  
 
MORE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT OUT WEST WITH THE  
APPROACH OF A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON  
TUESDAY. THE BIAS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IS FOR THE  
GFS/NAM TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD AND THE 00Z  
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THAT. THOUGH THE DIFFERENCES SEEM LESS  
APPARENT THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED. THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN  
MODEL HAS BEEN THE ECMWF, AND FOR THE WPC PREFERENCE, IT'S FAVORED  
HEAVILY ON DAY 2/3. SOME INCLUSION OF THE UKMET/CMC AS WELL AS  
ECENS MEAN CAN BE INCORPORATED.  
 
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
TAYLOR  
 

 
 
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