577   
FXUS10 KWNH 100451  
PMDHMD  
  
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1250 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2020  
  
VALID MAR 10/0000 UTC THRU MAR 13/1200 UTC  
  
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
  
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..CLOSED LOW AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE  
  
A CLOSED LOW WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY WILL BE  
SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36  
HOURS. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED  
TIGHTER AND TOWARD A SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE 12 ECMWF  
DETERMINISTIC RUN. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC  
GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE AND WELL WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD,  
OUTSIDE OF THE UKMET WHICH BY DAY 2/3, PINCHES OFF MORE OF THE  
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY DAY 3, MODELS ALL AGREE ON  
THE LOW WOBBLING TOWARD THE BAJA WITH THE UKMET LAGGING THE REST  
OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND OUTSIDE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.  
  
   
..NORTHERN STREAM FLOW  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND; EXCEPTION NON-GFS DAY 3  
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE  
  
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BROAD  
SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S., EVOLVING INTO  
DEEPER TROUGHING BY DAY 3 OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE  
LARGE SCALE SENSE, THE MODELS SHOW AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE  
CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THOUGH THERE ARE MORE  
MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH SOME OF THE TIMING/PROGRESSION OF THE  
SYSTEMS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z GFS, WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF A  
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY  
NIGHT. ITS SOLUTION FAVORS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW TIED TO THE  
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHEREAS MUCH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE,  
ESPECIALLY NON-NCEP GUIDANCE, SHOWS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE  
GREAT LAKES. BASED ON CONTINUITY, WILL FAVOR A NON-GFS BLEND ON  
DAY 3 BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND SUFFICES FOR DAY 1/2.  
  
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
  
TAYLOR  
  
  
 
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