312
FXUS10 KWNH 100816
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
416 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2020
VALID MAR 10/0000 UTC THRU MAR 13/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..CLOSED LOW AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
08Z UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTED WITH THE REST OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE. THE 00Z UKMET DID TREND MORE FAVORABLY TOWARD THE REST
OF THE GUIDANCE, SO WILL UPDATE THE PREVIOUS PREFERENCE TO GO WITH
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
A CLOSED LOW WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TIGHTER AND TOWARD A SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE 12 ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC RUN. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE AND WELL WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD,
OUTSIDE OF THE UKMET WHICH BY DAY 2/3, PINCHES OFF MORE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY DAY 3, MODELS ALL AGREE ON
THE LOW WOBBLING TOWARD THE BAJA WITH THE UKMET LAGGING THE REST
OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND OUTSIDE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
..NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND; EXCEPTION NON-GFS DAY 3
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BROAD
SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S., EVOLVING INTO
DEEPER TROUGHING BY DAY 3 OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE
LARGE SCALE SENSE, THE MODELS SHOW AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THOUGH THERE ARE MORE
MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH SOME OF THE TIMING/PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEMS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z GFS, WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT. ITS SOLUTION FAVORS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW TIED TO THE
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHEREAS MUCH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE,
ESPECIALLY NON-NCEP GUIDANCE, SHOWS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. BASED ON CONTINUITY, WILL FAVOR A NON-GFS BLEND ON
DAY 3 BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND SUFFICES FOR DAY 1/2.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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