419
FXUS10 KWNH 141700
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1259 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2020
VALID MAR 14/1200 UTC THRU MAR 18/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z FINAL MODEL EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERVIEW OF SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL BE QUASI-AMPLIFIED IN
THE SHORT RANGE WITH HIGHLY MERIDIONAL FLOW ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA AND ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
NATION...AT LEAST EARLY ON. BY MONDAY, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S./GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH A STRONG CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH THE 12Z NAM/GFS STRONGER
WITH THE 850-500 MB LOW COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC. THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH. BY MONDAY
EVENING, MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE 12Z NAM FASTEST
WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING THE CLOSED LOW
TO THE EAST FASTER THAN A STRONG MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE. HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY EVENING, THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ARE REDUCED AND SO A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND APPEARS REASONABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH
PERHAPS LESS 12Z NAM INFLUENCE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
UP NORTH, THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
U.S. THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET CATCH UP WITH THE 12Z GFS BY LATER MONDAY
THOUGH WITH PERHAPS THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z CMC LOOKING A BIT SLOW.
THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ARE MORE OF AN IMPACT TO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH RESULTING IMPACTS ACROSS THE U.S. RELATIVELY MINOR.
OTHER SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE LOWER 48, INCLUDING A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SHOW RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MODEL MASS FIELDS, SUPPORTING A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
OTTO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page