691
FXUS10 KWNH 160636
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2020
VALID MAR 16/0000 UTC THRU MAR 19/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH LATEST PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IMPACTING THE WEST
..CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND...THROUGH 60 HOURS
NON-NAM BLEND...AFTER 60 HOURS
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
THEN BEGIN TO PIVOT INLAND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL FOSTER LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60
HOURS, BUT THEREAFTER THE 00Z NAM TENDS TO EDGE ITS HEIGHT FALLS
FASTER OFF TO THE EAST WHICH FOSTERS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN CO AND SOUTHWEST NE. THE GLOBAL MODELS,
ESPECIALLY LED BY THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE, IS A BIT SLOWER AND NOT
QUITE AS DEEP WITH LOW PRESSURE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE CONSENSUS OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A
NON-NAM BLEND AT THIS POINT, AND SO THIS WILL BE THE PREFERENCE
AFTER 60 HOURS. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND SHOULD SUFFICE PRIOR TO THIS.
..TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT SWEEP FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH QUICKLY EXITS THE GREAT LAKES AND CROSSES THE NORTHEAST.
GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WILL BE
PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.
..TROUGH ARRIVING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THE MODELS BRING A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DOWN TOWARD THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z NAM IS A BIT
SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM,
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z CMC HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARD THE STRONGER SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE. THE REMAINING 00Z GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS, UKMET
AND ECMWF IS ALL A LITTLE WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
ENERGY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GEFS/ECENS MEANS. SO, AT
THIS POINT THE PREFERENCE WILL BE TOWARD THE RELATIVELY WEAKER
CONSENSUS PER THE GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
ORRISON
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