286   
FXUS10 KWNH 240436  
PMDHMD  
  
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1235 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2020  
  
VALID MAR 24/0000 UTC THRU MAR 27/1200 UTC  
  
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
  
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
  
SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST BY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: 18Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM  
CONFIDENCE: NEAR AVERAGE  
  
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND EMERGING OVER  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT AS IT REACHES THE  
EASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS IN  
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, AND THIS LOW REACHES  
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WEAKENS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH  
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BEING A STRONGER STORM.  IN TERMS OF THE  
MODELS, THE 00Z GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW THAT  
REDEVELOPS BY 18Z WEDNESDAY, AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD, AND ALSO AHEAD OF THE 18Z GEFS MEAN.  THE 12Z  
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE  
AMPLIFIED WITH THE STORM AS IT EXITS THE COAST, AND THE UKMET IS  
SLIGHTLY SLOWER.   
  
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET BLEND AFTER 12Z THURSDAY  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE  
  
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL END UP  
PRODUCING A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL  
SLOWLY PROGRESS DOWN THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND  
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL  
EVENTUALLY SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY THE END OF THE WEEK  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THERE IS GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT  
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, AND THEN THE 12Z UKMET BECOMES MORE  
AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.  THE 12Z  
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER  
EASTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT  
ELSEWHERE.  
  
STORM SYSTEM CROSSING NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. MIDWEEK  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE  
  
A SHORTWAVE BREAKS EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE PARENT WESTERN TROUGH  
AND CROSSES THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA, ALONG WITH A WELL-DEFINED  
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  SIMILAR TO  
YESTERDAY, THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE NORTHERN  
SHORTWAVE, AND BECOMES SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT BY 00Z THURSDAY.  
  
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
  
HAMRICK  
  
  
 
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