286
FXUS10 KWNH 240436
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1235 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2020
VALID MAR 24/0000 UTC THRU MAR 27/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 18Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM
CONFIDENCE: NEAR AVERAGE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND EMERGING OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT AS IT REACHES THE
EASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS IN
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, AND THIS LOW REACHES
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WEAKENS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BEING A STRONGER STORM. IN TERMS OF THE
MODELS, THE 00Z GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW THAT
REDEVELOPS BY 18Z WEDNESDAY, AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AND ALSO AHEAD OF THE 18Z GEFS MEAN. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE STORM AS IT EXITS THE COAST, AND THE UKMET IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER.
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET BLEND AFTER 12Z THURSDAY
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL END UP
PRODUCING A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS DOWN THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, AND THEN THE 12Z UKMET BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ELSEWHERE.
STORM SYSTEM CROSSING NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. MIDWEEK
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
A SHORTWAVE BREAKS EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE PARENT WESTERN TROUGH
AND CROSSES THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA, ALONG WITH A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE, AND BECOMES SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT BY 00Z THURSDAY.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
HAMRICK
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