275   
FXUS10 KWNH 120434  
PMDHMD  
  
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1233 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2020  
  
VALID APR 12/0000 UTC THRU APR 15/1200 UTC  
  
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
  
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH INITIAL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
  
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LEADING TO INTENSE SURFACE LOW OVER  
GREAT LAKES  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECENS MEAN WITH SOME INCLUSION OF THE 00Z GFS AND  
12Z ECMWF  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE  
  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION CURRENTLY SEEN  
IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AS IT  
MOVES INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PHASE WITH THE  
SOUTHERN FEATURE RESULTING IN A POWERFUL CYCLONE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN  
FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE NEXT 36  
OURS. GUIDANCE HAS CONSOLIDATED ON A GENERAL TRACK AND DEPTH WITH  
DIFFERENCES TIED LATITUDINALLY OVER MICHIGAN WHERE THE GFS/UKMET  
ARE A SOUTHERN SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF/CMC/NAM IS FURTHER  
NORTHWEST AT 36 HOURS. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IS DISPLACED WELL  
TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE ECENS MEAN, WHILE THE GFS AND GEFS ARE  
NEARLY IDENTICAL IN LOCATION FROM 24 TO 36 HOURS. FROM A MASS  
FIELD PERSPECTIVE, A BLEND TOWARD THE ECENS MEAN WITH SOME  
INCLUSION OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A FAVORABLE  
APPROACH.  
  
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. FOR EARLY IN THE  
WEEK  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH LESS WEIGHT GIVEN TO 00Z GFS  
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE  
  
IN THE WAKE OF THE NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE FOR THE EASTERN U.S.  
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER  
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S. FOR DAY 2/3. LARGE GYRE OVER SOUTHERN  
CANADA PIVOTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, WHERE THE GFS  
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT TOO AMPLIFIED AND DEEP WITH ITS 500 MB LOW  
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE DISCOUNTED COMPLETELY. OTHERWISE, THE MODEL  
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT SO A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH  
LESS WEIGHT TOWARD THE GFS IS PREFERRED.  
  
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
  
TAYLOR  
  
  
 
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