275
FXUS10 KWNH 120434
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1233 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2020
VALID APR 12/0000 UTC THRU APR 15/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH INITIAL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LEADING TO INTENSE SURFACE LOW OVER
GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECENS MEAN WITH SOME INCLUSION OF THE 00Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION CURRENTLY SEEN
IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN FEATURE RESULTING IN A POWERFUL CYCLONE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN
FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE NEXT 36
OURS. GUIDANCE HAS CONSOLIDATED ON A GENERAL TRACK AND DEPTH WITH
DIFFERENCES TIED LATITUDINALLY OVER MICHIGAN WHERE THE GFS/UKMET
ARE A SOUTHERN SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF/CMC/NAM IS FURTHER
NORTHWEST AT 36 HOURS. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IS DISPLACED WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE ECENS MEAN, WHILE THE GFS AND GEFS ARE
NEARLY IDENTICAL IN LOCATION FROM 24 TO 36 HOURS. FROM A MASS
FIELD PERSPECTIVE, A BLEND TOWARD THE ECENS MEAN WITH SOME
INCLUSION OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A FAVORABLE
APPROACH.
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. FOR EARLY IN THE
WEEK
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH LESS WEIGHT GIVEN TO 00Z GFS
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
IN THE WAKE OF THE NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE FOR THE EASTERN U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S. FOR DAY 2/3. LARGE GYRE OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA PIVOTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, WHERE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT TOO AMPLIFIED AND DEEP WITH ITS 500 MB LOW
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE DISCOUNTED COMPLETELY. OTHERWISE, THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT SO A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH
LESS WEIGHT TOWARD THE GFS IS PREFERRED.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
TAYLOR
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