671
FXUS10 KWNH 130503
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
102 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2020
VALID MAY 13/0000 UTC THRU MAY 16/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...CLOSED LOW OVER ALBERTA TRACKING TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THU...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI...
...SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL US WED NIGHT INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NAM/12Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
DIFFERENCES DEVELOP EARLY, WITH THE GFS NOTABLY SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM AND 12Z ECMWF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE 00Z UKMET AND 12Z
CANADIAN ARE SLOWER AS WELL, NEITHER ARE AMPLIFIED AS THE GFS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS, WITH BOTH THE 18Z GEFS AND 12Z EC ENSEMBLE MEANS
FAVORING A SOLUTION LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS.
....CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THU...MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO TAKE A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING, EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. SOME
TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL MODELS ARE
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
..BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THU/FRI
..SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NM/WEST TX FRI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
OVERALL, MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT -- CONTINUING TO SHOW A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BROADENING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
PEREIRA
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page