242
FXUS10 KWNH 130705
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2020
VALID MAY 13/0000 UTC THRU MAY 16/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...CLOSED LOW OVER ALBERTA TRACKING TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THU...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI...
...SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL US WED NIGHT INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET/GFS/GEFS MEAN
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS, THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN HAVE ALSO TRENDED
TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. WHILE THE
GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO AMPLIFIED FOR A PERIOD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, ITS SLOWER TIMING IS NOW LESS OF AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON
TO THE ECMWF, UKMET, CANADIAN AND GEFS MEAN. THE NAM, WHICH WAS
LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN, IS NOW ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY TO SATURDAY.
....CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THU...MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO TAKE A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING, EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. SOME
TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL MODELS ARE
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
..BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THU/FRI
..SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NM/WEST TX FRI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
OVERALL, MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT -- CONTINUING TO SHOW A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BROADENING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY EARLY
SATURDAY ...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS, THE OVERNIGHT
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT -
INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
BY SATURDAY MORNING.
PEREIRA
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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