568
FXUS10 KWNH 060703
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 AM EDT SAT JUN 06 2020
VALID JUN 06/0000 UTC THRU JUN 09/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z FINAL MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..AMPLIFYING WAVE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO AMPLIFIES AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. 00Z GUIDANCE ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT INCLUDING THE CMC WHICH IS NO LONGER THE DEEPEST
SOLUTION.
...LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH CROSSES THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY, THE WYOMING ROCKIES THIS EVENING, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THE 00Z GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER TONIGHT, BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO BE RULED OUT OF THE EXCELLENT AGREEING CONSENSUS AMONG THE REST
OF THE 00Z GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
...CLOSED LOW DRIFTING SOUTH OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA THEN SHIFTING
INTO WASHINGTON/OREGON SATURDAY TONIGHT AND A NORTHERN TROUGH
DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WELL DEFINED SYMMETRIC CLOSED LOW OFF BC WILL MAKE LANDFALL INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ARISES AS THE CENTRAL
CORE ENHANCED BY THE PACIFIC JET ROUNDS THE BROADENING BASE INTO
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY/GREAT BASIN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE WYOMING ROCKIES. STILL,
MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMES WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND THEREFORE THE MAGNITUDE OF AMPLIFICATION
WITH THE PRECURSORY WAVE MOVING INTO SW CANADA. THE GFS AND NAM
REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SWING THE JET THROUGH WY INTO MT
STRONGER AND FASTER. TIMING IS MUCH BETTER AMONG THE 00Z SUITE, SO
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS PREFERRED.
..CRISTOBAL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 03Z NHC ADVISORY
CONFIDENCE: REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOR T.S. CRISTOBAL IS CLUSTERED WELL WITH
GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND SLOWER THAN THE OUTLIER 00Z CMC FOR TIMING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS TIGHT
CLUSTERING OF THE LOW POSITION WITH THE 00Z UKMET THE DEEPEST IN
TERMS OF CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A FEW MILLIBARS. THE 00Z GFS SLOWED
IN ITS DAY 1 TIMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE 00Z NAM WAS
JOINED BY THE 00Z ECMWF AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DAYS 1-3
FORECAST TRACK.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
JACKSON
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