777
FXUS10 KWNH 070713
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
313 AM EDT SUN JUN 07 2020
VALID JUN 07/0000 UTC THRU JUN 10/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING FINAL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TODAY...
...ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE
GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
WHILE THE GENERAL PATTERN OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGING EAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO
SASKATCHEWAN ON MONDAY IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THERE ARE STRENGTH
ISSUES, MAINLY FROM NCEP GUIDANCE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS KEEP THE LOW
CLOSED ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO MT AND THE GFS/00Z GEFS FURTHER
STRENGTHEN THE LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN ON MONDAY WHILE NON-NCEP
GUIDANCE OPENS THE LOW OVER THE ID/MT ROCKIES TONIGHT AND KEEPS A
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ABSORBING CRISTOBAL REMNANTS. THIS STRONGER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE NAM/GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER EAST
WHICH MAKES FOR CONVERGENCE/PREDECESSOR RAIN FROM CRISTOBAL
FARTHER EAST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY 2 THAN NON-NCEP
GUIDANCE.. PARTICULARLY WITH THE GFS, THE EASTERN FAVORING BRINGS
CRISTOBAL REMNANTS FARTHER NORTH QUICKER. THERE IS EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT AMONG 00Z NON-NCEP GUIDANCE, SO THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC ARE
PREFERRED.
..CRISTOBAL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 03Z NHC ADVISORY
CONFIDENCE: REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS
00Z GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHIFTED A BIT WEST AND A BIT FASTER
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUNS THROUGH DAY 2. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE 00Z GFS BEGINS TO OUTPACE THE PACK LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MONDAY SHUNTING THE TROUGH FARTHER
EAST WITH AN EARLIER INTERACTION WITH CRISTOBAL AS NOTED ABOVE.
THE 03Z NHC TRACK IS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GLOBAL SFC LOW
CENTER PROGS, BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
JACKSON
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