381
FXUS10 KWNH 071648
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1248 PM EDT SUN JUN 07 2020
VALID JUN 07/1200 UTC THRU JUN 11/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES AND
CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TODAY...
...ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE
GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
OVERALL, MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DIVERGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA; WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
A DEEPER CLOSED SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH RESPECT TO THE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY
- THE NAM, 00Z ECMWF, 00Z UKMET, AND 00Z CANADIAN ALL SHOW A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER CLOSING OFF OVER KANSAS LATE TUESDAY.
DESPITE A TREND TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION, THE GFS IS STILL A FAST
OUTLIER -- SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE, OPEN WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEDNESDAY, WITH THE GFS REMAINING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD, THE NAM, 00Z UKMET AND 00Z
CANADIAN ARE AMONG THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS, WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
FALLING NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD.
..CRISTOBAL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 15Z NHC ADVISORY
CONFIDENCE: REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS
MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL-CLUSTERED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY -- SHOWING
A SIMILAR TRACK ALONG THE LOWER INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW INCREASING SPREAD, THE
GFS LINES UP CLOSEST TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST POSITION. BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET ARE ALL
SIMILAR TO THE NHC TRACK IN SHOWING A POSITION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
AT THAT POINT, THE NAM BEGINS TO BECOME A MORE EASTERLY OUTLIER.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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