222
FXUS10 KWNH 071836
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 PM EDT SUN JUN 07 2020
VALID JUN 07/1200 UTC THRU JUN 11/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING FINAL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TODAY...
...ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE
GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-GFS BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
OVERALL, MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER 48
WITH THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DIVERGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA; WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
A DEEPER CLOSED SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH RESPECT TO THE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY
- THE NAM, ECMWF, UKMET, AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW A MID-TO-UPPER
LEVEL CENTER CLOSING OFF OVER KANSAS LATE TUESDAY. DESPITE A
TREND TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION, THE GFS IS STILL A FAST OUTLIER --
SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE, OPEN WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
..CRISTOBAL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 15Z NHC ADVISORY
CONFIDENCE: REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS
MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL-CLUSTERED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY -- SHOWING
A SIMILAR TRACK ALONG THE LOWER INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY, AS MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW INCREASING SPREAD, THE
GFS LINES UP CLOSEST TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST POSITION. BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE 12Z GFS, ECMWF, UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE ALL
SIMILAR TO THE NHC TRACK IN SHOWING A POSITION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
AT THAT POINT, THE NAM BEGINS TO BECOME A MORE EASTERLY OUTLIER.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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