699
FXUS10 KWNH 080455
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1254 AM EDT MON JUN 08 2020
VALID JUN 08/0000 UTC THRU JUN 11/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING INITIAL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THAT SPINS OFF A LOW THAT CROSSES THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-GFS BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN SPINS OFF AS ITS OWN LOW THAT CROSSES THE
CO/NM BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS TUESDAY TRAILING THE REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL THEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS IT TURNS NORTH AND CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN FOR ALL GLOBAL
MODELS EXCEPT THE 00Z GFS WHICH IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAS A
GREATER INTERACTION OF THE SPUN OFF LOW AND THE CRISTOBAL REMNANTS
MAKING FOR A MUCH DEEPER LOW WITH A FARTHER WEST TRACK OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST THAN THE REST OF THE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
THE NAM/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC ALL HAVE A SLOWER LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ALLOWING CRISTOBAL TO GET FARTHER AHEAD. THE 00Z NAM
DEVELOPS A DEEPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH IS
UNDERSTANDABLY SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC. AS OF NOW A
NON-GFS SOLUTION REMAINS THE RECOMMENDATION.
..CRISTOBAL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-GFS BLEND
CONFIDENCE: REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS
NON-GFS MODELS ARE WELL-CLUSTERED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
CRISTOBAL REMNANTS TRACK UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THEN TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE 03Z NHC ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF
THIS CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY INTERACTION
WITH THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED, BUT AS OF NOW IT IS THOUGHT THE GFS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS INTERACTION.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
JACKSON
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