636
FXUS10 KWNH 090510
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
109 AM EDT TUE JUN 09 2020
VALID JUN 09/0000 UTC THRU JUN 12/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING INITIAL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...LOW THAT SPINS OFF TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NCEP BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THE 00Z NAM IS DEEPER AND THUS TOO SLOW WITH THE LOW CROSSING KS
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE 00Z GFS SLOWED FROM ITS PREVIOUSLY TOO
FAST SOLUTION, BUT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE THE CONSENSUS AS THE
SYSTEM TURNS NORTH OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS ALSO
JUST A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT REACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THURSDAY. FOR NOW, THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE 12Z
ECMWF/UKMET/CMC WHICH HAVE EXCELLENT TIMING AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND RESULTANT COLD FRONT.
..CRISTOBAL REMNANTS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH LESS WEIGHT ON NAM/GFS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THE 00Z GFS MAKES GOOD STRIDES TO BE CLOSER TO THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE INTO DAY 2 AS THE REMNANTS LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA, BUT
THERE IS STILL MORE INTERACTION WITH THE TRAILING SYSTEM IN THE
GFS THAN ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z GFS/NAM ARE THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND MOST WEST WITH THE TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE 12Z UKMET/CMC GENERALLY IN BETWEEN. PREFERENCE FOR
NOW IS NON-NCEP WITH SOME LIMITED INCLUSION OF NAM/GFS ALLOWED
GIVEN THE ACTUAL TRACK DIFFERENCES ARE NOT FAR APART (GIVEN THIS
IS WITHIN 24HRS NOW).
...SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA LOW STALLING OFF THE BC COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-GFS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
GOOD AGREEMENT ON DAY 1 RAIN WHICH IS HEAVIEST OF THE THREE DAYS
(GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW DAYS 2/3), BUT THEN THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED BY LATE THURSDAY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR
MORE RAIN THAN THE LESS AMPLIFIED, BRINGING HEAVIER DAY 3 RAIN TO
THE WA/OR COAST THAN THE REST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE.
JACKSON
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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