127
FXUS10 KWNH 100453
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1253 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2020
VALID JUN 10/0000 UTC THRU JUN 13/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z INITIAL MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...LOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS TURNING NORTHEAST AND LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...
...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, REACHING
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-CMC GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE INITIAL LOW OVER KS SWINGING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TRAILING TROUGH THAT
DRIFTS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO HAS DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z GFS
HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND IS NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE 12Z CMC IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH
AXIS AND THOUGH ITS LEAD COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSION TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONSENSUS, IT IS NOT NEARLY AS
POSITIVELY TILTED BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE AND THUS MISSES OUT ON MIDWEST PRECIP ON A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ON DAY 3. THEREFORE, A NON-CMC SOLUTION IS RECOMMENDED.
...CLOSED LOW OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING AND REACHING THE WEST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-GFS GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
GOOD AGREEMENT ON REINFORCING WAVE DIGGING A TROUGH OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE 00Z GFS SPED UP EVEN MORE WITH
THIS WAVE, KEEPING IT OPEN AND EJECTING IT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WELL AHEAD OF THE 18Z GEFS MEAN. THE
CONSENSUS IS TO CLOSE THE LOW AND SLOWLY BRING IT INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL CA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS LOW WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THE MODEL AND THE 12Z UKMET/CMC AND
00Z NAM ARE ALL IN A SIMILAR POSITION ALONG THE CA/NV BORDER BY
13/12Z. THERE IS A SIMILAR DAY 3 PRECIP PATTERN AMONG THESE
MODELS, SO A NON-GFS BLEND IS PREFERRED.
JACKSON
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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