824
FXUS10 KWNH 110510
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
109 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2020
VALID JUN 11/0000 UTC THRU JUN 14/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z PRELIMINARY MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCES AND
CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO CANADA
TONIGHT...
...DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL BLEND THROUGH FRIDAY
ECENS/GEFS FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE NCEP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE AT A
PREMIUM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. FOR THE
MOMENT, THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF LEANING ON A GENERAL MODEL BLEND INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OVER TO A ECENS/GEFS MEAN FOR POSITION AND
DEPTH OF THE MAIN TROUGH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE SUPPORT OFFERED BY THE 11/00Z.
...LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST AND SHORTWAVE LIFTING
ONSHORE CALIFORNIA BY THE WEEKEND...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON GFS
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS REMAIN A FAST/PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER...BUT
OVERALL THINK THE MODEL CLUSTERING THAT DEVELOPED IN MODEL RUNS
FROM 12Z HOURS AGO IS STILL A BETTER/MORE VIABLE OPTION AT THIS
POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW OFF THE
BC COAST. USING THE GEFS MEAN IS REASONABLE THROUGH 48 TO 60
HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE CMC BECOMES A STRONG OUTLIER WITH THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY, LEAVING THE ECENS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET/GEFS AS THE PREFERRED
BLEND.
BANN
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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