860  
FXUS10 KWNH 110704  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
304 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2020  
 
VALID JUN 11/0000 UTC THRU JUN 14/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z FINAL MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
 
...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO CANADA  
TONIGHT...  
...DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY  
NIGHT...  
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL BLEND THROUGH FRIDAY  
ECENS/GEFS FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE  
 
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE NCEP AND NON-NCEP GUIDANCE FROM  
11/00Z CONTINUES TO BE AT A PREMIUM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OHIO  
VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY  
AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY  
SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PROBLEMS IN THE EAST REVOLVE  
AROUND EACH MODEL'S HANDLING OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM  
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET EACH TENDS TO  
FORM SMALLER, DISCRETE LOWS/CIRCULATION CENTERS WHICH ROTATE  
AROUND A COMMON GYRE...ALTHOUGH POSITION AND DEPTH OF EACH FEATURE  
IN EACH OF THE MODELS CAN BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM OTHER  
MODELS. FOR THE MOMENT, THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF LEANING ON A GENERAL  
MODEL BLEND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OVER TO A ECENS/GEFS MEAN  
FOR POSITION AND DEPTH OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH STILL SEEMS  
REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STRUGGLES  
WITH PREDICTABILITY.  
 
...LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST AND SHORTWAVE LIFTING  
ONSHORE CALIFORNIA BY THE WEEKEND...  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON GFS  
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE  
 
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS REMAIN A FAST/PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER...BUT  
OVERALL THINK THE MODEL CLUSTERING THAT DEVELOPED IN MODEL RUNS  
FROM 12 HOURS AGO IS STILL A BETTER/MORE VIABLE OPTION AT THIS  
POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW OFF THE  
BC COAST. USING THE GEFS MEAN STILL SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH 48  
TO 60 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE CMC BECOMES A STRONG OUTLIER WITH THE  
AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN  
SATURDAY, LEAVING THE ECENS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET/GEFS AS THE PREFERRED  
BLEND.  
 
BANN  
 
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page