860
FXUS10 KWNH 110704
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2020
VALID JUN 11/0000 UTC THRU JUN 14/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z FINAL MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO CANADA
TONIGHT...
...DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL BLEND THROUGH FRIDAY
ECENS/GEFS FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE NCEP AND NON-NCEP GUIDANCE FROM
11/00Z CONTINUES TO BE AT A PREMIUM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY
SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PROBLEMS IN THE EAST REVOLVE
AROUND EACH MODEL'S HANDLING OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET EACH TENDS TO
FORM SMALLER, DISCRETE LOWS/CIRCULATION CENTERS WHICH ROTATE
AROUND A COMMON GYRE...ALTHOUGH POSITION AND DEPTH OF EACH FEATURE
IN EACH OF THE MODELS CAN BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM OTHER
MODELS. FOR THE MOMENT, THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF LEANING ON A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OVER TO A ECENS/GEFS MEAN
FOR POSITION AND DEPTH OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STRUGGLES
WITH PREDICTABILITY.
...LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST AND SHORTWAVE LIFTING
ONSHORE CALIFORNIA BY THE WEEKEND...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON GFS
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS REMAIN A FAST/PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER...BUT
OVERALL THINK THE MODEL CLUSTERING THAT DEVELOPED IN MODEL RUNS
FROM 12 HOURS AGO IS STILL A BETTER/MORE VIABLE OPTION AT THIS
POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW OFF THE
BC COAST. USING THE GEFS MEAN STILL SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH 48
TO 60 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE CMC BECOMES A STRONG OUTLIER WITH THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY, LEAVING THE ECENS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET/GEFS AS THE PREFERRED
BLEND.
BANN
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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