408
FXUS10 KWNH 070707
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2020
VALID JUL 07/0000 UTC THRU JUL 10/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH MODEL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.
NEW TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE DEPTH AND
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE INTO THURSDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH THE
00Z GFS WAS A BIT DEEPER AND QUICKER THAN THE 00Z ECWMF. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT, A BLEND SHOULD RESULT IN A CONSISTENT
LARGE-SCALE PICTURE WHILE MINIMIZING SOME OF THE MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES.
CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE WESTERN & CENTRAL US/CANADIAN
BORDER
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH LATER TONIGHT BEFORE THE 00Z
NAM BECOMES A SLOW/DEEP OUTLIER IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA -- MUCH
LIKE IT DID IN THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE. SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN IN
WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED IS FAIRLY ZONAL, WILL PREFER A COMPROMISE OF
THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE EDGING EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND NEW ENGLAND. A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE
TOP OF THE SYSTEM ARGUES FOR FAVORING A SOLUTION ON THE SLOWER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. STILL PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE LATEST
GFS/NAM/UKMET WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING BY NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
WEAKENING 700 HPA TROUGH ACROSS NV/CA THROUGH THURSDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION AND DEPTH
OF THESE FEATURES, SO PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS
AND THE 00Z ECMWF WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
BANN
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