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FXUS10 KWNH 240722
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
321 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2020
VALID JUL 24/0000 UTC THRU JUL 27/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
07Z UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTED WITH THE REST OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE AND NO MODEL BLEND PREFERENCE CHANGES NEEDED.
...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TRACKING FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT LEADING
AT THE SURFACE AND EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AS THIS
ENERGY REACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND, IT WILL
PHASE WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE FRONT
RANGE AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVOLUTION WITH JUST MINOR SPEED
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND SHOULD
SUFFICE.
..TROPICAL STORM HANNA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
BEST MODEL PROXY: 00Z ECMWF/UKMET
CONFIDENCE: REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT BECAME TROPICAL STORM HANNA AT 03Z IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CLUSTERING WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT HEADS WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL TEXAS GULF COAST. THE
LATEST TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND THE BEST MODEL
PROXY FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET. FOR THE LATEST OFFICIAL GUIDANCE, SEE THE MOST RECENT
ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
THIS PRODUCT WILL TERMINATE AUGUST 15, 2020:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/NOTIFICATION/PDF2/SCN20-58PMDHMD_TERMINATION.
TAYLOR
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