875
FXHW01 KWNH 010749
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 AM EST THU DEC 01 2022
VALID 00Z FRI DEC 02 2022 - 00Z FRI DEC 09 2022
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN AGREEABLE AND CONSISTENT FOR THE
EXPECTED PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS, MOISTURE
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LOWER THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
MOVES OVERHEAD. INITIAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TREND TOWARD MORE
TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADES BY EARLY FRIDAY, SUPPORTING
WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN FOCUSED SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THEN
FROM MONDAY ONWARD THE MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STILL DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A SHARPENING UPPER
TROUGH THAT REACHES NORTH/WEST OF THE STATE BY MONDAY, WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFERENCES LEADING TO VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES FOR THE SURFACE
PATTERN AND MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION. AT LEAST FOR NOW
THERE IS SOME INCREASED CLUSTERING TOWARD AN UPPER LOW (OR EVEN
TWO IN THE CASE OF THE 00Z GFS) CLOSING OFF TO THE NORTH OR WEST
OF THE STATE, GENERALLY CLOSER TO YESTERDAY'S ECMWF SCENARIO. THE
MAJORITY OF 00Z CMCENS/12Z ECENS MEMBERS FAVOR THAT BROAD AXIS
WHILE SOME 00Z GEFS MEMBERS HAVE THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH PROGRESSING
FARTHER EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. EVEN WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLUSTERING IN A BROAD SENSE VERSUS YESTERDAY, SURFACE
DIFFERENCES ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LOW. THESE RANGE FROM A SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH LINGERING
OVER THE ISLANDS IF THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE NORTH (00Z CMC) TO
HAVING THE FRONT STALL WEST OF THE ISLANDS IF THE UPPER LOW IS
MORE TO THE WEST. THE LATTER OPTION IS IN THE MAJORITY,
REPRESENTED BY THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z CMCENS/12Z ECENS MEANS.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE, WHILE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED
FRONT MAY GET CLOSE TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS FOR A TIME.
RAUSCH
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