089
FXHW01 KWNH 310810
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 AM EST SAT DEC 31 2022
VALID 00Z SUN JAN 01 2023 - 00Z SUN JAN 08 2023
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STILL SEEM REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A
PREFERRED GUIDANCE COMPOSITE TO MITIGATE LINGERING SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES. A WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROMOTE
MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FOR HAWAII, WHICH SHOULD LAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONT IS SET TO STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE DURING THIS PERIOD THAT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO TURN A BIT
SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE, BUT BE GENERALLY ON THE WEAK SIDE SO
THAT A LAND/SEA BREEZE PATTERN DOMINATES, ALBEIT WITH LIMITED
SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER THROUGH MIDWEEK, A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS HAWAII. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT,
MAINTAINING OVERALL DRY WEATHER. BUT THE FRONT WOULD AT LEAST
SHIFT WINDS TO HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND STRENGTHEN THEM AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH A SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT. UPPER RIDGING IS SLATED TO AMPLIFY BACK OVER THE ISLANDS BY
LATER NEXT WEEK IN A DRY AND STABLE PATTERN AND MODEST TRADES.
SCHICHTEL
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