212
FXHW01 KWNH 010743
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 AM EST SUN JAN 01 2023
VALID 00Z MON JAN 02 2023 - 00Z MON JAN 09 2023
GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK, BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A PREFERRED MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPOSITE TO MITIGATE LINGERING SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES. A WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROMOTE
MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FOR HAWAII, WHICH SHOULD LAST
INTO EARLY WEEK. A FRONT STALLED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE DURING
THIS PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO TURN A BIT SOUTHEASTERLY IN
RESPONSE, BUT BE GENERALLY ON THE WEAK SIDE SO THAT A LAND/SEA
BREEZE PATTERN DOMINATES, ALBEIT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER THROUGH MIDWEEK, A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK TO WORK ACROSS HAWAII. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT, BUT THE FRONT WOULD AT LEAST SHIFT WINDS TO HAVE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND STRENGTHEN THEM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH A SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGING IS
SLATED TO AMPLIFY BACK OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATER WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND IN A DRY AND STABLE PATTERN.
SCHICHTEL
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