582
FXHW01 KWNH 020705
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
204 AM EST MON JAN 02 2023
VALID 00Z TUE JAN 03 2023 - 00Z TUE JAN 10 2023
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STILL SEEM REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A
PREFERRED MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPOSITE TO MITIGATE LINGERING
SMALL SCALE DIFFERENCES. A WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO PROMOTE MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FOR HAWAII
TODAY. HOWEVER THEN THROUGH MIDWEEK, A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK TO WORK ACROSS HAWAII AS A DEEPENED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT ACROSS THE ISLANDS, BUT THE FRONT WOULD AT LEAST SHIFT WINDS
TO HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND STRENGTHEN THEM AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH A SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER
RIDGING IS SLATED TO AMPLIFY BACK OVER THE ISLANDS LATER WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEK IN A DRY AND STABLE PATTERN.
SCHICHTEL
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