484
FXHW01 KWNH 030706
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2023
VALID 00Z WED JAN 04 2023 - 00Z WED JAN 11 2023
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STILL SEEM REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A
PREFERRED MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPOSITE TO MITIGATE LINGERING
SMALL SCALE DIFFERENCES. EXPECT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ACROSS HAWAII OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN TRAILING FLOW OF A
DEEP SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS THE ISLANDS, BUT THE
FRONT WOULD AT LEAST SHIFT WINDS TO HAVE SOME NORTHERLY COMPONENT
AND STRENGTHEN THEM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH A
SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGING IS THEN SLATED TO
AMPLIFY BACK OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH LATER WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEK IN A DRY AND STABLE PATTERN.
SCHICHTEL
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