100
FXHW01 KWNH 200706
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2023
VALID 00Z SAT JAN 21 2023 - 00Z SAT JAN 28 2023
HAWAII AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE
EFFECTS OF TWO WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN SURFACE LOWS SHOULD BE WELL
NORTH OF THE STATE AT AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH. THE FIRST SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES BY THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A PLUME OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE AND HEAVIER RAINFALL LIKELY AFFECTING THOSE
ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER SOME TO A MORE S-SE DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE STATE.
BY SUNDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO THE NEXT FRONT/TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ISLANDS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WELL DEFINED COL IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT MAY LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS, FOLLOWED BY STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS MAY
ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFICS REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS JUNCTURE.
HAMRICK
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