200
FXHW01 KWNH 100755
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2023
VALID 00Z SAT FEB 11 2023 - 00Z SAT FEB 18 2023
TODAY'S GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE IDEA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS MULTIPLE SURFACE HIGHS PROGRESS ACROSS THE
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES ALSO CONCUR THAT MOISTURE AND WINDWARD FOCUSED RAINFALL
SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE COURSE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST
STAGE OF THIS INCREASE SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
TO A POSITION OVER/EAST OF THE STATE. THEN MOST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SOME COMBINATION OF THIS ENERGY AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LEADING TO AN UPPER LOW
SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN ISLANDS BY NEXT THURSDAY-FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE SPECIFICS BUT AS A WHOLE THE MODELS AND MEANS AGREE
THAT THIS SHIFT IN PATTERN SHOULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS EVEN
WITH THE SPREAD AND VARIABILITY OF MODEL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, IT
WOULD APPEAR THERE WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
RAUSCH
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