069
FXHW01 KWNH 140649
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 AM EDT TUE MAR 14 2023
VALID 00Z WED MAR 15 2023 - 00Z WED MAR 22 2023
A STILL FAVORED COMPOSITE OF WELL CLUSTERED MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD FORECAST CONTINUITY OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A
WAVY FRONT AND ENERGETIC EMBEDDED IMPULSE/SYSTEM TRACK IS EXPECTED
TO PERIST JUST NORTH OF HAWAII THIS WEEK, DOWNSTREAM OF AN
AMPLIFIED BUT POSITIVE TILT WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH SET
IN SPLIT SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW. FRONTAL PROXIMITY IS DRAWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. EXPECT THE
FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY SINK SOUTH ENOUGH TO FOCUS POOLED MOISTURE
AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLANDS FOR A WETTER PATTERN,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE WAKE OF ORGANIZING
FRONTAL LOW PASSAGE SLATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. SLOW
EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH AND
POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE STATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK MAY ACT TO FORCE AN ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEPLY POOLED
MOISTURE/RAINFALL TO NEAR THE WESTERN ISLANDS.
SCHICHTEL
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