984
FXHW01 KWNH 150719
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 AM EDT WED MAR 15 2023
VALID 00Z THU MAR 16 2023 - 00Z THU MAR 23 2023
GUIDANCE AND LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA GENERALLY STILL AGREES TO
INDICATE THAT A WAVY FRONT AND ENERGETIC EMBEDDED IMPULSE/SYSTEM
TRACK HAS SETUP ALONG/JUST NORTH OF HAWAII DOWNSTREAM OF AN
AMPLIFIED BUT POSITIVE TILT WEST CENTRAL PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH SET
IN SPLIT SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW. FRONTAL PROXIMITY IS DRAWING DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE AND IN PARTICULAR AN AXIS OF DEEP TROPICAL
SOURCED MOISTURE HAS RECENTLY WORKED INTO THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL
ISLANDS ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERTORMS. THIS IS
OCCURING AS A FRONTAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE.
LATEST TPW SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW QUITE AN ANOMOLOUSLY DEEP AND
CHANNELED BAND OF MOISTURE. THE FRONT AND RAIN FOCUS MAY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD LATE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING/INCREASING HEIGHTS
OVER THE STATE IN AMPLIFYING FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF THE WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH, WITH
POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE STATE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY PORTEND A MULTI-DAY WET PERIOD BACK INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ISLANDS WITH THE EXPECTED FORCING OF AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEPLY POOLED MOISTURE/RAINFALL BACK INTO THE
REGION. A COMPOSITE OF WELL CLUSTERED MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO PROVIDE A GOOD FORECAST BASIS AS DESCRIBED IN A PATTERN
WITH REASONABLY GOOD PREDICTABILITY.
SCHICHTEL
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