212
FXHW01 KWNH 270703
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 AM EDT THU APR 27 2023
VALID 00Z FRI APR 28 2023 - 00Z FRI MAY 05 2023
A FAVORED COMPOSITE OF WELL CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BROAD
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT OVERALL IN A PATTERN WITH AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY. RECENT PASSAGE OF AN AMPLIFIED/CLOSED
MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE DISRUPTED ISLAND
TRADES AND FORCED A TRAILING FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR ENHANCED RAINS OVER THE ISLANDS. THE WEAKENED AND STALLING
BOUNDARY AND LOCAL LAND/SEA BOUNDARIES SHOULD ACT TO CONTINUE TO
POOL DEEPER MOISTURE TO FUEL SOME DAILY LOCAL DOWNPOURS THIS WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSITION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO USHER IN A RETURN PERIOD OF MODERATE TRADES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIDGES TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. THERE
IS STILL A GROWING GUIDANCE SIGNAL THAT SUBSEQUENT SOUTHEASTWARD
DIGGING OF UPPER TROUGH ENERGY FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC
MID-LATITUDES NEXT WEEK MAY AGAIN WEAKEN ISLAND TRADES AS AN
ASSOCIATED AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FOCUSING FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT MAY REACH THE
STATE IN A WEEK.
SCHICHTEL
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