844
FXHW01 KWNH 080728
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 AM EDT MON MAY 8 2023
VALID 00Z TUE MAY 9 2023 - 00Z TUE MAY 16 2023
THE ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 30-35
DEGREES NORTH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, AND A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WEST OF THE STATE THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE IN THE DAYS AHEAD WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON THE ISLANDS.
THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A COL IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT FROM A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WELL, BUT IT SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY MAJOR EFFECTS ON THE
ISLANDS. THE HIGH SHOULD BUILD BACK IN NORTH OF THE STATE BY NEXT
SUNDAY/MONDAY.
MAINLY EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW OF 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE, BUT A RETURN TO LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE FLOW IS LIKELY
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE COL DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COULD MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS KAUAI BY SATURDAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT.
BESIDES THE NORMAL LOCATIONS FOR TRADE WIND ENHANCED SHOWERS, NO
MAJOR AREAS OF ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE GENERALLY STAYS
BELOW 15 DEGREES NORTH.
HAMRICK
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