943
FXHW01 KWNH 220704
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2023
VALID 00Z TUE MAY 23 2023 - 00Z TUE MAY 30 2023
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY AGREED THAT SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL SUPPORT A
MORE TYPICAL AND DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN OVER THE STATE EARLY
WEEK, WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING.
TRADES MAY INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS AT TIMES AND SHOWERS THAT DO
FORM SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. LATER, THERE IS A GUIDANCE SIGNAL THAT FAVORS DEVELOPMENT
OF AN UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE STATE MID-LATER WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. POOLING MOISTURE UNDER THE MODEST WEAKNESS COULD REFUEL
SOME SHOWERS AND LOCAL DOWNPOUR ACTIVITY. THIS OCCURS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW NOW SLATED TO PASS MUCH MORE TO
THE NORTH OF THE STATE IN THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN IN A MAJOR
SHIFT VERSUS OLDER RUNS THAT SHOWED MORE SOUTHWARD DIGGING. THAT
OPTION SEEMS LESS LIKELY NOW DUE TO VERY DIFFERENT FLOW
INTERACTIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, BUT STILL IS SHOWN BY THE
NAVGEM. THE TREND SUGGESTS TRADES ARE NOW LESS LIKELY TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTED.
SCHICHTEL
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