914
FXHW01 KWNH 010736
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 AM EDT THU JUN 01 2023
VALID 00Z FRI JUN 02 2023 - 00Z FRI JUN 09 2023
EXPECT MODERATE TO BRISK TRADES WITH PRIMARILY WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN
SHOWER FOCUS TO START THE PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY WEAKER TRADES DURING
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT ERODES THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
STATE. ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY THE TRADES MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SEA/LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP. WHILE THE CHARACTER OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS, RAINFALL SHOULD TREND
LIGHTER IN MOST CASES AS CONSENSUS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STEADILY DECLINING TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND.
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TRADES REBOUNDING TO MODERATE LEVELS NEXT
WEEK AS THE FRONT'S SUPPORTING DYNAMICS MOVE ONWARD AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE NORTH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN. NOTE THAT
THE 00Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS REBOUND IN TRADES VERSUS OTHER SOLUTIONS
AS IT HOLDS THE UPPER TROUGH/EMBEDDED LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE STATE
(JUST TO THE NORTHEAST) AND KEEPS SURFACE PRESSURES OVER/NORTH OF
THE STATE NOTICEABLY LOWER. UNTIL THERE IS A CLEAR TREND IN THAT
DIRECTION BY OTHER GUIDANCE, WOULD RECOMMEND THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN
AND 12Z ECMWF MEAN FOR THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST. MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AFTER THE WEEKEND SO
SHOWERS COULD TREND A BIT HEAVIER AS THE TRADE PATTERN RESUMES.
RAUSCH
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