791
FXHW01 KWNH 050733
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
332 AM EDT WED JUL 05 2023
VALID 00Z THU JUL 06 2023 - 00Z THU JUL 13 2023
RECENT DAYS OF GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN VARYING SOMEWHAT FOR THE EXACT
DETAILS OF SEPARATE SURFACE HIGHS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC, BUT CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE IDEA OF MODERATE TO BRISK
TRADES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS
AT TIMES. FROM NOW THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, EXPECT RAINFALL
WITH THE TYPICALLY WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN FOCUSED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT SINCE THE STATE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY. RAINFALL MAY INCREASE AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE STILL EXPECTS A
POCKET OF INCREASED MOISTURE (ORIGINALLY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
ADRIAN) TO CROSS THE AREA WITHIN THAT TIME FRAME. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF THIS MOISTURE CONTINUE THOUGH.
NORTHWARD TRENDS OF THE GFS/GEFS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE
IMPROVED CLUSTERING FOR LATITUDE, WHILE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL TRYING
TO RESOLVE TIMING. THE GFS/GEFS HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT SLOWER
RECENTLY BUT ARE STILL SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS ALSO A
BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
BROAD UPPER WEAKNESS WITH ONE OR MORE EMBEDDED LOWS (GFS RUNS A
LITTLE DEEPER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS) APPROACHING/REACHING THE AREA
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.
RAUSCH
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