026
FXHW01 KWNH 170744
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2023
VALID 00Z TUE JUL 18 2023 - 00Z TUE JUL 25 2023
THE CORE OF THE MAIN MID-LATITUDE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF HAWAII THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, GENERALLY NEAR 45N/170W, WITH AN SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENSION
CENTERED BETWEEN 35-40N FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
SHOULD STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUSTAIN MAINLY
EAST-NORTHEAST TRADES OF 10-20 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK AND THEN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE WINDWARD TERRAIN. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR THIS SCENARIO.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, TROPICAL STORM CALVIN IS
FORECAST TO TRACK IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE BIG ISLAND AS A
WEAKENING STORM BASED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER, WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF ARRIVAL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A ROUND OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING, ALONG WITH HIGH SURF AND GUSTY WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
4-8+ INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND
WITH THIS EVENT, AND THIS WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, LIGHTER IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLANDS, AND THEN A RETURN TO
NORMAL TRADE WINDS AND GREATLY IMPROVED WEATHER CONDITIONS GOING
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND.
HAMRICK
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