278
FXHW01 KWNH 050737
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 AM EDT SAT AUG 05 2023
VALID 00Z SUN AUG 06 2023 - 00Z SUN AUG 13 2023
LATEST GUIDANCE IS AGREEABLE AND CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST
PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING OVER THE STATE DURING THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE EMBEDDED
UPPER LOW CENTER LIKELY GETTING CLOSE TO THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS
ON SUNDAY, WILL PRODUCE A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE MID-LATITUDE
SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TRADES AND POSSIBLY
SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT OF WINDWARD-FOCUSED RAINFALL. A BAND
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE QUICKLY PASSING THROUGH AROUND MONDAY MAY
ALSO INCREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. THEN FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT STRONG WINDS AS UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING MOVE
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH IN CONCERT WITH HURRICANE DORA THAT IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG 10-15N LATITUDE. STEADY WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD HELP WINDS TO SLACKEN TOWARD
MODERATE LEVELS AGAIN BY AROUND THE END OF THE WEEK. ALSO EXPECT
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD, WITH BELOW-CLIMATOLOGY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT COULD BE AS LOW AS MINUS 2-2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS AROUND
MIDWEEK AND THEN JUST GRADUALLY LESS EXTREME WITH TIME INTO THE
WEEKEND.
RAUSCH
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