861
FXHW01 KWNH 150729
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2023
VALID 00Z WED AUG 16 2023 - 00Z WED AUG 23 2023
TROPICAL STORM GREG SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF HAWAII,
LIMITING ANY APPRECIABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS MAY BE AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY GIVEN A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN GREG AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. AFTER THIS TRADES SHOULD RELAX
A BIT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER HAWAII WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER. BY THIS WEEKEND THOUGH, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA IN THE EAST PACIFIC SHOULD
APPROACH HAWAII BRINGING AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS/IMPACTS STILL
QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF IS STRONGEST WITH WHATEVER SURFACE
REFLECTION IS LEFT PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN
ISLANDS. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
SANTORELLI
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